Quick Summary
- Closed sales across Northern Virginia fell 7.5% in September compared with a year earlier, and new pending sales dropped 16.2%, according to the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors (NVAR).
- The median sold price still climbed 4.2% to $744,950.
- Active listings jumped 30.7% to 3,477, with most of the growth in condos and townhomes.
- Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed rate was 7.40% on October 15, up from 6.27% a year earlier.
In This Post
- What the September numbers show
- Why prices are rising while sales slow
- What 7.40% does to a monthly payment
- What this means for buyers
- What this means for sellers
- FAQ
- Sources and reporting limits
What the September Numbers Show
NVAR released its September report on October 16, using Bright MLS data pulled on October 12. The region it covers includes Fairfax and Arlington counties, the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Falls Church, and the towns of Vienna, Herndon and Clifton. That is a wide net, so treat these as regional figures, not a read on any single neighborhood.
Here is the headline. There were 1,250 closed sales in September, down 7.5% from September 2025. New pending sales, which are contracts signed and a decent preview of what closes in the next month or two, came in at 1,204. That is 16.2% fewer than a year ago. (The release says the comparison is to “September 2026,” which looks like a typo for 2025.)
16.2% fewer new pending sales than a year ago. Contracts are the early signal, and this one points to a slower October and November for closings.
Homes that did sell did not sit around. The average was 28 days on market, the same as last year. Buyers who are still in the market are moving quickly on the right house.
Why Prices Are Rising While Sales Slow
Normally you would expect prices to soften when fewer people are buying. They have not, at least not yet. The median sold price was $744,950, up 4.2% from a year ago.
The reason is supply, or the lack of it in the places buyers want most. Active listings did jump 30.7% to 3,477, and months of supply rose to 2.5. But that growth is lopsided. Condo and townhome inventory is up 49.7%. Detached single-family inventory is up just 5.7%.
NVAR CEO Ryan McLaughlin put it this way in the release: “The composition of the new inventory is an important part of this story.” In plain terms, there are more listings, but not many more of the houses most families are looking for. If you want a detached home near good schools, you are still shopping in a tight pocket of the market.
Loudoun County, which NVAR reports separately, shows a similar but softer picture. Closed sales fell 17.8% to 338, the median price edged up 0.8% to $758,500, and active listings rose 34.1%.
What 7.40% Does to a Monthly Payment
Freddie Mac’s weekly survey put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.40% on October 15, unchanged from the week before. A year earlier it was 6.27%.
Here is a simple example using the September median price. With 20% down on $744,950, the loan is about $595,960. At 6.27%, principal and interest on a 30-year loan comes to roughly $3,677 a month. At 7.40%, it is roughly $4,126. That is about $449 more every month, or around $5,400 a year, for the same house. This is an estimate and leaves out taxes, insurance and any HOA or condo fees, so your real number will differ.
About $449 a month. The estimated increase in principal and interest on a median-priced Northern Virginia home, comparing 7.40% to 6.27%.
What This Means for Buyers
You have more choices than you did a year ago, especially if you are open to a condo or townhome. More inventory also tends to mean a little more room to negotiate on repairs, closing costs or timing, though a well-priced detached home in a strong school pyramid can still draw multiple offers.
McLaughlin also noted that “additional inventory does not automatically make homeownership more attainable.” That fits what many first-time buyers are feeling. Choice is up, but the monthly payment is the real hurdle.
If you are watching Reston specifically, the Reston page on this site has more on how the area has been moving. Townhomes and condos near the Silver Line are a big part of that conversation right now.
What This Means for Sellers
Fewer contracts and more competing listings mean pricing matters more than it did a year ago. A home priced a little high can sit while three similar ones come on the market. The good news is that the median price is still rising and homes are averaging 28 days to sell, so a sensible price still gets attention.
Sellers in McLean and the surrounding Fairfax County communities should also remember that regional numbers hide a lot. A condo and a detached house on a quiet street are in two different markets right now. The McLean page covers that part of the county.
FAQ
Are home prices in Northern Virginia going down?
Not in the September data. NVAR reported the regional median sold price at $744,950, up 4.2% from September 2025. Prices can move differently by neighborhood and property type, and one month is not a trend.
Is it a buyer’s market now?
Not in the traditional sense. Months of supply was 2.5 in September, and many analysts consider roughly five to six months to be a balanced market. It is more balanced than last year, mostly for condos and townhomes.
Should I wait for rates to drop before buying?
Nobody can say when rates will move, so it is risky to plan around a guess. A better question is what payment you are comfortable with today, and whether the home works for you if you refinance later or if you do not.
Sources and Reporting Limits
- Northern Virginia Association of Realtors, “Northern Virginia Inventory Rises Again as Home Sales Decline and Prices Increase,” via PR Newswire, October 16, 2026. Data from Bright MLS as of October 12, 2026.
- NVAR, Market Statistics: September 2026, nvar.com, October 16, 2026.
- Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, rates as of October 15, 2026.
- Limits: NVAR’s release gives regional totals and Loudoun County figures, but no separate numbers for Fairfax County, Reston or other individual communities. Housing data is revised as late reports come in, so figures may change slightly. The monthly payment example is an estimate using the September median price and 20% down, and excludes taxes, insurance and fees. The “five to six months of supply is balanced” benchmark is a commonly cited industry rule of thumb, not an NVAR figure. Check nvar.com and freddiemac.com for updates.
If you are thinking about a move this fall or winter, reach out to Nikki and she can walk you through what these numbers mean for your neighborhood.