In September 2026, Northern Virginia closed sales fell 7.5% from a year earlier and new pending sales dropped 16.2%, yet the median sold price rose 4.2% to $744,950, according to the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors (NVAR). Active listings jumped 30.7%, mostly condos and townhomes, while 30-year mortgage rates sat near 7.40%.
Quick Summary
- Closed sales: 1,250, down 7.5% from September 2025. New pending sales: 1,204, down 16.2%.
- Median sold price: $744,950, up 4.2%. Average days on market: 28, unchanged.
- Active listings: 3,477, up 30.7%. Condo and townhome inventory rose 49.7%, while detached inventory rose 5.7%. Months of supply: 2.5.
- Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed average was 7.40% on October 15, 2026, versus 6.27% a year earlier. It eased to 7.32% on October 22.
In this post: What the September numbers show | Why prices are rising while sales slow | What 7.40% does to a monthly payment | What this means for buyers | What this means for Reston and McLean homeowners | Sources and reporting limits | FAQ
What the September numbers show
NVAR released its September report on October 16, using Bright MLS data. Its footprint covers Fairfax and Arlington counties, the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Falls Church, and the towns of Vienna, Herndon and Clifton, so treat these as regional figures rather than a read on any single neighborhood.
Pending sales are the early signal. Contracts signed in September usually close in October and November, so a 16.2% drop points to slower closings this fall.
16.2% fewer new pending sales than September 2025, the clearest sign that buyers pulled back.
Why prices are rising while sales slow
You might expect prices to soften with fewer buyers. They have not, at least not yet. The reason is the mix of homes for sale. Inventory is up sharply overall, but condo and townhome listings grew 49.7% while detached listings grew only 5.7%.
NVAR CEO Ryan McLaughlin said in the release that “the composition of the new inventory is an important part of this story.” In plain terms, there are more listings, but not many more single-family detached homes, which is still the tightest part of the market. We saw the same pattern start in August, covered in our August inventory update.
What 7.40% does to a monthly payment
Freddie Mac’s weekly survey put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.40% on October 15, 2026, compared with 6.27% a year earlier. Here is a simple example using the September median price and 20% down, which means a loan of about $595,960.
- At 6.27%, principal and interest come to roughly $3,677 a month.
- At 7.40%, they come to roughly $4,126 a month.
- That is about $449 more per month, or roughly $5,400 a year, for the same house.
This estimate leaves out taxes, insurance and any HOA or condo fees, so your real number will differ. Rates eased slightly to 7.32% the following week.
About $449 a month: the estimated increase in principal and interest on a median-priced Northern Virginia home, 7.40% versus 6.27%.
What this means for buyers
You have more choices than a year ago, especially if you are open to a condo or townhome, and more room to negotiate on repairs, closing costs or timing. Well-priced detached homes in popular areas can still draw strong interest, so do not assume extra inventory elsewhere will help on every house.
McLaughlin also noted that “additional inventory does not automatically make homeownership more attainable.” For many first-time buyers, the payment is the real hurdle, not the number of listings.
What this means for Reston and McLean homeowners
If you are selling, pricing matters more than it did a year ago. A home priced a little high can sit while similar ones come on the market. The good news is that the median price is still rising and homes average 28 days to sell, so a sensible price still gets attention.
Regional numbers hide a lot. In Reston, condos and townhomes near the Silver Line make up a big share of the housing stock, so they are feeling the inventory growth most. A detached home in McLean is in a different market right now. The Reston neighborhood guide and McLean neighborhood guide go deeper, and the home value tool gives you a starting estimate for your own address.
Sources and reporting limits
- NVAR, “Northern Virginia Inventory Rises Again as Home Sales Decline and Prices Increase,” via PR Newswire, October 16, 2026
- NVAR, Market Statistics: September 2026, October 16, 2026
- Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, October 15 and 22, 2026
NVAR gives regional totals and does not break out Reston or other individual communities in this release. Monthly figures can be revised. The payment example is an estimate using the median price and 20% down and excludes taxes, insurance and fees. The five-to-six months of supply benchmark for a balanced market is a common industry rule of thumb, not an NVAR figure.
FAQ
Are home prices going down in Northern Virginia?
Not in the September 2026 data. NVAR reported a median sold price of $744,950, up 4.2% from September 2025. One month is not a trend, and prices vary by home type and neighborhood.
Is Northern Virginia a buyer’s market now?
Not in the traditional sense. Months of supply was 2.5 in September, well below the five to six months often considered balanced. Buyers have more choice than last year, mostly in condos and townhomes.
How much more does a 7.40% mortgage rate cost than 6.27%?
On a loan of about $595,960, principal and interest rise from roughly $3,677 to $4,126 a month, about $449 more, before taxes, insurance and fees.
Should I wait for rates to drop before buying?
Nobody can predict when rates will move. A better question is what payment you are comfortable with today and whether the home works for you if you can or cannot refinance later.
Thinking about buying or selling this fall or winter? Reach out to Nikki Lagouros, Realtor, to talk through what these numbers mean for your neighborhood.