WJLA’s Storm Alert Weather team estimates 10 to 20 inches of snow for the DC area this winter, with the best chance in January and February. That is a local, analog-based estimate, not a NOAA forecast, and a strong El Niño does not guarantee a snowy winter around Reston.
Here is the careful version of the outlook, a month-by-month look, and what it can and cannot tell you.
What the outlook says
On Oct. 29, WJLA published its 2026-27 winter outlook for the DC region. Their early read is a winter that may be wetter than average and near to slightly milder overall, with the best odds for accumulating snow in January and February. For comparison, Reagan National Airport’s 1991-2020 seasonal normal is 13.7 inches, and last winter came in at 10.6 inches.
The 10 to 20 inch range spans from near normal to above normal. WJLA labels it a local estimate. NOAA does not issue a specific seasonal snow total.
Why El Niño gets so much attention
El Niño is a warming of the tropical Pacific that can shift the storm track. WJLA cites NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center update from Oct. 8, which said a strong-to-very-strong El Niño is likely through January to March 2027, with odds above 83%. “Super El Niño” is an informal term, not an official NOAA category.
In the Mid-Atlantic, El Niño can steer more moisture toward the East Coast, but it can also bring milder air. Wet is not the same as white. NOAA’s October outlook favors above-normal temperatures across the Mid-Atlantic, and those are seasonal probabilities, not a promise that every week will be warm.
Month by month
WJLA’s estimates for the DC area:
- December: 42 to 44 degrees on average, about 1 to 2 inches of snow
- January: 37 to 39 degrees, cold snaps still possible, 4 to 8 inches
- February: 39 to 41 degrees, 5 to 10 inches
January and February carry most of it: 9 to 18 inches of the 10 to 20 inch range. WJLA also says totals can run higher west of the city and in the mountains, and lower toward the southern and eastern lowlands. That is a general pattern, not a Reston-specific forecast.
What past strong El Niño winters tell us
WJLA points to big storms in past strong El Niño years: the December 2009 Snowpocalypse (16.4 inches at Reagan National), the February 2010 Snowmageddon (17.8 inches) and the January 2016 blizzard (17.8 inches). But the 1997-98 and 1972-73 seasons each ended with just 0.1 inch.
The National Weather Service says DC snowfall has tended to depend more on the North Atlantic Oscillation than on El Niño or La Niña alone. The takeaway: a seasonal outlook cannot say when a storm will arrive or whether it brings rain, sleet or snow. One well-timed storm can swing the whole season.
What this means for Reston homeowners
A wetter-than-average outlook is a good nudge to do the winter basics now, with or without snow:
- Clear gutters and downspouts so heavy rain and meltwater have somewhere to go.
- Check that your sump pump, if you have one, runs.
- Know where your shovels and salt are before you need them.
- If you live in a townhouse or condo community, read how your association handles plowing and sidewalks, since that varies between communities.
Our home maintenance essentials for Reston homeowners guide has more. If you are buying or selling this winter, a snowy weekend is a good test of how a street drains and gets cleared. Start with our Reston area guide, and if you are wondering what your home is worth heading into the season, get your home value here.
FAQ
Is 10 to 20 inches of snow a lot for the DC area?
It depends on the year. Reagan National’s 1991-2020 normal is 13.7 inches, according to WJLA, so that range runs from a little below to well above a typical winter. Last winter’s 10.6 inches fell short of normal.
Is this an official NOAA snow forecast?
No. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issues temperature and precipitation probabilities and does not forecast a specific snow total. The 10 to 20 inch range is WJLA’s local estimate.
Does a strong El Niño guarantee a snowy winter around Reston?
No. Past strong El Niño winters include both major blizzards and seasons with almost no snow. Forecasters point to the NAO and the timing of cold air as big factors.
When is snow most likely this winter?
WJLA says January and February offer the best chance for meaningful accumulation, with December expected to be mostly light.
Sources and reporting limits
- WJLA 7News Storm Alert Weather, “2026-27 Winter Outlook: What a very strong El Niño could mean for the DC region”, published Oct. 29, 2026 and updated Oct. 30, 2026.
- NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO diagnostic discussion, as cited by WJLA for the Oct. 8 update.
Limits: figures are current as of Oct. 29 to 30, 2026. Seasonal outlooks change and local forecasts sharpen as storms approach. WJLA’s snowfall range is a metro-area estimate, not an official forecast.
Planning a move or a sale this winter? Reach out to Nikki for a read on how the Reston and Northern Virginia market behaves when the weather turns.